With a host of widely watched companies set to report earnings this week, three names in particular could surprise Wall Street: Consol Energy, GoPro and Electronic Arts. So suggests a comparison between analysts' consensus estimates and the crowdsourced predictions generated by financial upstart Estimize, which claims to be more accurate than the Street 70 percent of the time.
The first of these stocks to report, Electronic Arts, is expected to post earnings of 45 cents per share for the quarter, according to FactSet. However, Estimize expects the company to beat estimates comfortably, with 53 cents per share projected by the Estimize algorithm, which uses individuals' predictions to create a forecast.
That said, it may not be too big a surprise to see EA beat analyst consensus. The company has topped estimates by more than 10 cents in each of the past eight quarters. In fact, in the prior quarter, the company's earnings were more than five times greater than the Street anticipated.
More generally, the average company beats earnings estimates in a given quarter.
Another stock expected to beat is GoPro. The company's report is certain to be eagerly watched by traders, given that options market pricing implies an expectation that the stock will move nearly 15 percent on the week.
On average, analysts think GoPro will post 29 cents per share in profit in its Wednesday report, which would actually be a penny below the company's guidance. But the Estimize call is for earnings of 33 cents.
Perhaps more interesting is the expectation for Consol Energy. While the Street is looking for a loss of 3 cents per share (or, said differently, earnings of negative 3 cents) the Estimize crowd thinks a loss of 9 cents is in store.
An expectation below the Street is "very rare," Christine Short of Estimize said in a Friday "Trading Nation" interview. "We typically have estimates that are a little bit higher than the Street, so when it's lower, that's when you want to start paying attention."