CCTV Script 19/10/15

– This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on October 19, Monday.

Welcome to CNBC Busines Daily, I'm Qian Chen

2 debates have characterized the past 3 months - when the fed will raise rates... And just how strong, China's economy really is.

Doubts are creeping in over whether the US central bank will actually move this year... and that's down to a deterioration in the world's number 2 economy.

China's economy grew at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis in the third quarter, reviving expectations of further stimulus to avert a stalling of the world's growth engine.

The world's second largest economy expanded by 6.9 percent in the July-September quarter, slowing from a 7 percent increase in the previous quarter. The numbers were still better than market expectations.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast gross domestic product (GDP) in the world's second-largest economy would grow 6.8 percent in July-September period from a year earlier.

Growth was up 1.8 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q3, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Monday. This compared to a Reuters forecast of

1.7 percent, down from a revised 1.8 percent in the second quarter.

Bureau spokesman Sheng Laiyun told Reuters that China faced increased downward pressure on exports, and the government needed time to absorb excess capacity in traditional industries.

The government has set its annual economic growth target at "around 7 percent" for 2015, but at the weekend Chinese Premier Li Keqiang admitted that with the global economic recovery losing steam, hitting such a target was "not easy."

For investors who won't trust so much about the GDP numbers, we break down the GDP number and take a look at the so-called Li Keqiang Index...

China Bank lending data last week showed the ongoing effects of a liquidity pump, as the government tries to mitigate slowdown in other parts of the economy.

Meanwhile Railway cargo figures slumped nearly 11 percent in the first 8 months of this year, as fewer raw materials were being transported for manufacturing.

Electricity consumption was also flat from January to August, which the National Bureau of Statistics said was again due to less manufacturing.

Industrial output growth also cooled more than expected to 5.7 percent, disappointing analysts who expected it to rise 6 percent on an annual basis after a rise of 6.1 percent the prior month.

CLN RUN DOWN 1000 10-19-2015

[Tony Nash, complete Intelligence, Chief Economist ] "101143 We feel like we are in that zone at least in the interim buttom. We think in December, things will turn around for a bit, kind of as things prodcutsions hit for the Chinese New Year, that was the last production for the Chinese New Year, but then we hit for that Jan Feb kinda weird economic period of Chinese New Year. So we will be pretty negative for Oct November, but December will look good again, and Jan Feb we'll see another small decline. 101210"

We polled a series of banks around the region for their 2015 forecasts for China.

You can see the range - Barclays the most bearish, predicting GDP will grow by 6.6%... all the other way to the other end of the spectrum where HSBC, NAB and Credit Suisse are betting on growth of 7.1%.

Martin Lakos, Division Director of Macquarie Private Wealth, has a more bullish view... predicting a rebounce of China's Q4 GDP.

CLN RUN DOWN 1000 10-19-2015 1100 10-19-2015

[Martin Lakos, Division Director, Macquarie Private Wealth] "111625 And we get even more positive that it would be the buttom of the cycle. so wo got the forcast of the 4th quarter number of 7.2%, so a rebound in GDP. What we are seeing, the drivers are improvement in property market, we will see some inventory levels coming off in property, which is good news. ... some measures by the government as well. 111655 "

CNBC's Qian Chen, reporting from Singapore.



At her factory in central China, manufacturer Maggie Ma is bracing for tough times.

Her company makes clothing for big brands like The Gap.

With sales slowing overseas, Ma had hoped to sell into China.

No such luck.

LT: Maggie Ma, Manager, Cciola

"Domestic consumers are doing OK but high inventory is inevitable," she says. "The manufacturing industry in China is suffering."


Many companies in China are coping with too much inventory.

The economy here is slowing down.


Industries such as steel and cement are burdened with overcapacity...


while property developments struggle to attract new buyers -- raising fears the Chinese slowdown could become a major risk to the global economy.


China has shot up the list of investor concerns - due to the recent stock market tumble, disappointing data and a surprise devaluation of the yuan


which officials say helped cushion sales for manufacturers like Ma.


With the economy poised to miss its annual growth target of about 7-percent, pressure is growing for the nation's leaders to step up measures to stimulate the economy -- policies that could be announced around an October conference outlining development plans for the next five years.


Building more trains and highways as part of a government push to rebuild old trade routes - an initiative dubbed the "New Silk Road" - is expected to be discussed among the policymakers -- spending that Ma would welcome.

She has already started using a rail link to Europe to save on shipping costs.

LT: Maggie Ma Manager, Cciol

"If Chinese consumers really cannot buy up unsold stock, the China-Europe link and the New Silk Road will help take these goods to overseas destinations for sale," she says.


... with the goal of preventing the Chinese economy from derailing.

Eunice Yoon CNBC Zhengzhou.

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