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Cramer: How much will disappointment cost you?

When a company reports weak results, Jim Cramer is frequently asked by investors how to price that disappointment into the market. How do you know when the weaker results could be indicative of a larger trend and the whole group should be avoided?

It was this exact confusion that overwhelmed the market on Thursday, and Cramer thinks it was justified.

Buffalo Wild Wings has been one of the best performers out there. It closed at $138 on Thursday, while just five years ago it traded at $50. But then again, a month ago it traded at $207. Yikes! What happened?

When the company reported, its same-store sales showed a dramatic deceleration. Its net earnings growth guidance went to single digits from 13 percent, and raw costs are high. It was an ugly set of numbers, in Cramer's opinion.





Buffalo Wild Wings
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
"These are not positive trends, so the disappointment makes some sense" -Jim Cramer

On Thursday, there was some serious pin action as well and every restaurant stock was hammered.

Was the sell-off justified? Cramer thinks Buffalo Wild Wings was priced for perfection. So when it didn't deliver perfect results, it brought the group down. Additionally, it is possible that the whole blowup of the group could be just momentary. A few football games and maybe its numbers could be better.

But it is the labor costs, insurance costs and food costs that really concerned Cramer. Those are issues that impact every company across the board.

"These are not positive trends, so the disappointment makes some sense," Cramer said. (Tweet this)

In other words — stay away.

Then there was the curious case of NXP Semiconductors, the play on the Internet of things. It gave shockingly cautious guidance, saying that it would cut prices for semiconductors across the board. As a result, its competitors Avago and Skyworks were clubbed as well for guilt by association.

But when Cramer thought about it, something was wrong here.

NXP Semi has a lot of automotive exposure, and that is one of the hottest businesses in the space. Plus, Apple confirmed that cellphones are incredibly strong and inventories are lean.

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"My take? There should be no pin-action here. NXP Semi has issues that others might not have," Cramer said.

The guidance made no sense to Cramer based on what he has heard from the other chip companies that he follows. That is why he recommended buying the group, not sell it, even though Avago and Skyworks are too risky for his taste right now.

So, Cramer wants investors to think long and hard before reacting to weak numbers when a company reports. Not every company deserves to get slammed within a sector. The key is to identify those names, and get a chance to buy high quality stocks at a discount because someone else didn't do the homework.

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