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Cramer: Don't bother bottom fishing retail yet

To Jim Cramer it seems as if consumers have finally awoken from a retail dream, and have finally figured out that warm weather is bad news for retail stocks.

Not only is this warm winter in the U.S. going to hurt the bottom line in retail, but higher minimum wages will ultimately cause pain for the earnings of this group as well.

"Geez, it's not like any of this was hard to see coming," the "Mad Money" host said.





Shopper at a clothing store in San Francisco.
Robert Galbraith | Reuters
Shopper at a clothing store in San Francisco.
"We won't get a bottom until people feel like their disposable income has risen versus the past, and their lower oil and gas bills come due." -Jim Cramer

This was quite evident when Cramer went to his local Costco over the weekend. As soon as he walked in, he was greeted with a pile of nice fall jackets. He watched as patrons continued to walk right past the giant display of warm weather goods. After all, why would they be worried about buying winter jackets if they were wearing a T-shirt and jeans?

"Sure, there is going to be a winter, but not until you see the whites of winter's eyes do you feel like shelling out big bucks for it," Cramer said.

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So while retail will take a beating from the warm weather, Cramer says it won't last forever. Ultimately stocks will be so low that the weather will be factored into prices. Investors will know that it is factored in when stocks no longer react to downgrades.

But that time is not now, and the headwinds will continue to be brutal with no end in sight.

"I think it is too early to try bottom fishing in retail. We won't get a bottom until people feel like their disposable income has risen versus the past, and their lower oil and gas bills come due," Cramer said. (Tweet This)

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