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30 years of history points to year-end rally

A torrent of selling sent the Dow back into the red for 2015 and had all the major indexes facing their biggest one-day percentage loss in over a month. But according to one technician's chart work, history shows investors would be wise to start buying stocks now.

"Our key takeaway is to stay long the S&P 500," Ari Wald said Monday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." For Wald, a combination of strong technicals and positive seasonal data make the case for a year-end rally.

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Looking at a chart of the S&P 500 in 2015 compared with the average monthly returns from 1984 to 2014, Wald noted a pattern of deterioration heading into Thanksgiving. "We've followed this road map closely, and typically what you see is early November weakness followed by late-November strength that extends into year-end," Oppenheimer's chief market technician said.


According to Wald, the markets could continue to wobble for the next couple of sessions, but inevitably end the year at or above all-time highs. Since 2013, the S&P 500 has rallied a respective 5 and 2 percent in the last two months of the year.

"I don't think we're going to have a massive move up in a broad-base way," David Seaburg argued. "I think it's going to be a very concentrated group of names that are going to continue to work out," he said Monday.

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If an investor wants to buy an index, Seaburg advised looking to the small cap Russell 2000 rather than the S&P 500. "If you want to bet on the market, the best bet is the Russell 2000," Cowen & Co.'s head of sales trading said. "It's underperforming the S&P 500 and it's filled with names that hedge fund managers will push around."

The Russell 2000 is down more 1.5 percent this year, while the S&P 500 is up 1 percent.

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Brian Sullivan

Brian Sullivan is co-anchor of CNBC's "Power Lunch" (M-F,1PM-3PM ET), one of the network's longest running programs, as well as the host of the daily investing program "Trading Nation." He is also a frequent guest on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" and other NBC properties.

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