– This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on November 9, Monday.
Welcome to , I'm Qian Chen.
Look at the job data CNBC Business Dailyme out last Friday... 271 thousand nonfarm payroll, and 5% unemployment rate...it's hard to forget.
And hard for many to imagine the Fed NOT raising rates at its December meeting.
Now that the United States is closing in on full employment and inflation is likely to rise to target levels, the "next step" should be to start gradually increasing rates, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said on Saturday.
While a December rate hike is back on the table, CNBC talked to a few central bankers, to find out what they are doing, and will be doing.
Firstly, India. The Reserve Bank of India surprised many in the market when it reduced interest rates by a larger than expected half a percent cut in September.
WIth inflation at 3.7%, the central bank is well below its medium term CPI target.
That's raising the possibility that it still has room to lower rates from the current 6.75%.
But RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, tells Martin Soong in this exclusive interview, there are other considerations.
[Raghuram Rajan, Reserve Bank of India Governor]: "17:27:58 Well the 3.7(%) is based on significant base effects also, which we know are mechanical and would reverse as we go along. My sense is that the underlying inflation is between 5-5.5% right now of the run rate, so we probably will get back to that by the end of the year so that doesn't give us a lot of room below the 6(%)."
Now, moving to England, the pound weakened after the Bank of England indicated rates might have to stay low for longer.
A more dovish tone from the BOE than many expected, as policy makers voted 8-1 to keep rates at a record low of half percent.
Now in filling the details of the bank's latest inflation report, governor Mark Carney signaled the rates could stay on hold throuhout next year, without a risk of overshooting inflation target at all.
Now the news really pushed down the sterling with Carney saying that inflation is likely to remain below 1% , into the half, the second half of 2016. He also warned of the external macro economic pressures would weigh on UK growth.
[Mark Carney, Bank of England governor]: "More fundamentally, monetary policy must continue to balance to fundamental forces, domestic strength and form weakness in order to return inflation to target in a sustainable manner. 032023 The global outlook for growth has weakened since August, EM economy slowed markedly this year, and the committee has down graded its assessment of the medium-growth prospects. 032035"
Last but not least, China.
The week ahead starts with Asian traders digesting the below-view trade figures from China released at the weekend.
October exports fell 6.9 percent from a year ago, dropping for a fourth month, while imports slipped 18.8 percent, leaving the country with a record high trade surplus of $61.64 billion, the General Administration of Customs said on Sunday.
Although Beijing has already repeatedly cut interest rates and softened the exchange rate to prop up the economy, the latest trade numbers suggest that a stubborn slowdown persists in the world's second-largest economy.
[Jing Ulrich, vice chairman, Asia Pacific, J.P. Morgan Chase:] "4:44:52 - Central banks around the world have been injecting a lot fo liquidity into the econ. and China is no exception. but in the longer term in order for china to have a sustained rally, we need structural reforms. in china those reforms are going to be very far-reaching. everything from popn polic, removing the 1-child policy have 35 years to banking reform restructuring SOEs, as well as giving capital markets a much bigger role. So yes, short term monetary policy absolutely helps. But longer term the reform program should begin to bear fruit which would actually help the market rally on a more long-term sustainable basis. 4:45:33"
BOJ, BOK are ECB are all closely wathced by investors as well...
CNBC's Qian Chen, reporting from Singapore.
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