"I think it's a double-edged sword. There are going to be some companies that actually benefit from a stronger dollar, like Wal-Mart," said Jack Ablin, CIO of BMO Private Bank. "Smaller companies should benefit. The cruise industry, the travel industry, airlines, I think this should be an ideal environment."
Bespoke, however, in a report Tuesday noted that domestic stocks that typically benefit when the dollar rises have not gained with the recent greenback strength. Bespoke studied companies in the Russell 1000 with 50 percent of revenues outside the U.S. and domestics, with 90 percent or more of sales in the U.S. over the last year.
The dollar index has rallied about 5 percent in the past four weeks, and normally when that happens domestic companies benefit while multinationals with international exposure lag. "But in the last several weeks we have seen the complete opposite pattern," Bespoke analysts wrote.
The firm offered two explanations. One is that the international companies may have benefited more during earnings season, when they beat analysts' expectations, getting help from the lowered bar for currency impact. Secondly, the international companies may have outperformed on expectations that more easing from the ECB could help economic conditions and therefore the revenues of internationally exposed companies.
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