The Fed's going to trick the market, again: Trader

With bond yields on the rise, it seems that the market is seeing a December rate hike as an increasingly likely possibility.

The 10-year Treasury note yield traded at a four-month high this week, trading above 2.3 percent. Since yields rise as prices fall, the recent move points to bond traders selling off current holdings in preparation for lower-priced bonds after a rate hike.

"Everyone is pricing it in," Phillip Streible of RJO Futures said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "I think that it's wildly anticipated that we'll see this rate hike on December 15, 16," after the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting.

However, one trader remains very skeptical that the Fed will raise its federal funds rate target in December.

"Lucy's going to pull the football out from under Charlie Brown again. How many times do we have to see this?" Larry McDonald, head of U.S. macro strategy at Societe Generale, said Wednesday.

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McDonald points to the Fed's history of pushing back rate hike expectations in June and again in September as evidence that a similar situation will play out.

Key challenges in considering a rate rise include a stronger U.S. dollar, falling commodities prices and trouble in emerging markets, McDonald said. He believes that when the time comes to assess monetary policy, the same problems that plagued the market in August will return.

"That's impacted the Fed's policy path, the path has been vetoed by economic risk outside the United States and that's probably going to play out again," he said. "That brings back credit risk, then we get a leg down in the market, then once again the Fed gets put in a box."

Nonetheless, Streible is betting on a December hike.

"There's a whole number of things that could set off and delay the rate hike," Streible said."But I think it's just so baked in, the Fed has to strike now or forever hold their peace."

Similarly, macro investor Mark Dow told CNBC on Wednesday that the Fed "would like us to have our expectations converge" on a December hike. "The data would have to be pretty bad to knock them off of that."

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, traders foresee a 68 percent chance of a December move.

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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET). In addition, he contributes to CNBC and CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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