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Cramer: Don't get cocky; it was a patriotic rally

After the horrific events that occurred in Paris on Friday, Jim Cramer found many worried investors wondering if the action on the tape on Monday was the real deal.

Could the U.S. be headed back into a murky slowdown, and could the Federal Reserve push the market into one if it raises rates?

"First of all, whenever there is a horrific terrorist attack, like Paris experienced on Friday, you know that you are not going to get a true market on the next trading day," the "Mad Money" host explained. (Tweet This)

Many of the buyers on Monday were what Cramer calls patriotic buyers. Those are investors who are looking to take advantage of any weakness in stocks in order to show the people that perpetrated these acts that it will not impact them.

In fact, when Cramer took a look at the underbelly of what is really going on in the market, it was ugly. There are some tremendous declines in companies that are linked to American manufacturing, which prompted Cramer to think we could be headed into a manufacturing recession, which could be very significant for much of the country.





American flag
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"Today was a good day for the averages, but don't get cocky." -Jim Cramer

When Cramer examined the state of the country, he took a bottom-up approach. He started by looking at individual companies first, rather than GDP numbers, labor reports or retail sales. This way he was able to get a grasp on how individual industries are doing.

"Boy, oh boy, are some industries doing terribly and need a declaration from the Fed that, in light of recent events, they have decided to let 2016 play out before thinking of tightening," Cramer said. (Tweet This)

The first industry in pain was the basic industries: steel, metals and mining. Cramer's main concern is that with the oil service market being shut down by low oil prices and the Chinese endlessly dumping steel around the world that steel companies won't be able to survive the downturn with the way that they are configured.

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Cramer was also concerned about coal, iron and agricultural companies. Grain processor Archer Daniels and fertilizer company Mosaic are both down 26 and 28 percent for the year, respectively.

And the weakness was not just limited to industrials. Retail has been in a world of pain, too. Macy's is now down 42 percent for the year, which is astounding for America's largest broadline department store chain.

"Today was a good day for the averages, but don't get cocky. There is an ugly underbelly to this tape that says today's rally was just an oversold reprieve, and there is more pain to come," Cramer said. (Tweet This)

That is, unless the Fed decides to come to its senses and recognize the areas of weakness in the economy. Especially if it decides to push rates up just as the market heads into a downturn.

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