Business News

CCTV Script 16/11/15


– This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on November 16, Monday.

Welcome to CNBC Business Daily, I'm Qian Chen.

Friday's tragic events in Paris are set to have repercussions all over the world, and financial markets are no exception.

As the dust settles from the attacks which left 129 people dead and hundreds more injured, analysts began to ponder the geopolitical and economic implications

Marc Chandler, head of FX strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, said that investors' initial reaction would be to cut exposure to higher-yielding, risky assets.

"On one hand it pushes the market in a direction it was already moving in - to reduce risk. On the other hand, central banks don't let these sorts of things affect markets, and they could say they'll do whatever it takes to provide liquidity," he told CNBC.

Chandler added that the Paris attacks should push markets in a direction they were already going, with the dollar firming, bond prices rising, stocks falling and oil also falling.

"I think there might be a quick knee jerk response. I could see people trying to reduce risk. That means both longs and shorts have to get out.

Bonds ended firmer Friday and stocks were selling off," he said.

The possible fallout for financial markets when they open trading again may reverberate across the following asset markets:

Oil is already trading near its six-year lows and healthy demand has been a major factor preventing the prices from sliding any lower amid a worsening global oil glut due to abundant supplies.

A consensus is forming that Western countries are more likely to involve themselves in the war against Islamic State. With the stakes raised, the already combustible Middle East may see further destabilization and drive the price of oil higher.

After an initial sell-off, the attacks of September 11, 2001 led to a 55 percent rally in the price of Brent crude over 12 months, a surge that began in November 2001. At the time, the U.S. began its war in Afghanistan and rumblings of a confrontation with Iraq was already building.

Both European and Middle Eastern stock markets are expected to see increased volatility as a result of Friday night's events, with geopolitical woes expected to strain relationships between some countries.

"The attacks raise uncertainty, lower confidence and are growth negative through border closures and emergency measures," Richard Cochinos, head of G10 currency strategy at Citi, wrote in a research note Sunday.

CLN STREET SIGNS 11_16_2015 1100

[SETH (t) MERRIN, Liquidnet CEO] "110450 I think we will get over this event, and I think that, you know, consumer sentiment, interestingly, will be affected by how strong our response to this terrorist attack. 110501 joined by 110506 Well, I bet you that at the G20 right now, everybody is begging Obama to hold rates steady, not to raise it because theres too much uncertainty and the global economy is too fragile, ... any other hit to it. 110519 "

In times of increased risk, gold is the classic safe haven. It has also had a month where it has sustained losses every week, as investors expected a Fed rate rise in December. More uncertainty may boost the allure of bullion.

The single currency may be facing increased headwinds as a result of the weekend's events - but Citi strategists argue that further action by the European Central Bank is more likely as a result.

"The justification for the euro shorts was established on ECB expectations and any additional policy driving capital outflows," Cochinos said, speaking of investor bets that the single currency would fall. "This attack, while terrible, does not shift those criteria meaningfully," he added.


France is the most visited country in the world, with more than 82 million foreign tourists holidaying in France every year (the bulk of whom would pass through Paris at some point).

The country rakes in more than 40 billion euros from tourism every year, so it's a big part of the French economy.

No doubt Friday night's carnage will cause many people to reconsider their holiday plans, while less spending and transportation will likely to drag the country's growth.

[Frank Troise (SOT used in Street Signs this morning, do we have a clean version without the LT?) MD, Infinity Partners CLN STREET SIGNS 11_16_2015 1100] "110532 As a native New Yorker, we go back to 2011, and I have 3 things I'm thinking this weekend. One, are we now in the globle recession tipping point, 2, are we looking at a tech bubble, 3. we are now looking at terror attacks at key cities. If we say we are pretty concerned, its true. 110548 "

CNBC's Qian Chen, reporting from Singapore.

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