Is Amazon going to cut UPS, FedEx out?

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An Amazon.com worker sorts packages onto a conveyor belt at an Amazon fulfillment center in Tracy, California.
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After disrupting the retail sector with e-commerce and the legacy technology industry with cloud computing, what is Amazon's next big disruptive act?

Responding to an unsubstantiated media report the company secretly launched an air cargo operation in Ohio, Baird's Colin Sebastian believes Amazon is building out a transportation and logistics offering. Here's what he said in a note to clients Tuesday:

"Whether the report is accurate or not, our assessment of Amazon's broadening fulfillment ecosystem, internal domain expertise, and early initiatives with Prime Now to offer delivery services suggests Amazon may ultimately pursue more comprehensive third-party services. Similar to the gradual rollout of AWS, we would expect Amazon to introduce competitive transportation and logistics services on an incremental basis, with a long-term focus."

Amazon already offers one- to two-hour delivery with the Prime Now service in over dozen U.S. cities and same-day grocery delivery with Amazon Prime Fresh.

Sebastian thinks Amazon has the differentiated skill-set and critical mass to compete broadly with UPS and FedEx.

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