If Donald Trump were the GOP nominee, he would cause the highest voter turnout, relative to any other Republican hopeful.John Kasich, on the other hand, would keep people at home.
No matter what party affiliation you consider, Trump brings them out. Republicans, Democrats and independents are all most likely to show up if Trump is on the ballot. (In our analysis, we assumed a constant variable: the Democrats nominating Hillary Clinton.)
Not only do they show up to vote, but they vote for Trump. He's got the highest percentage of voters — across both parties and independents.
The other candidates cause more of a snooze response from the public. Among the Republicans surveyed, Kasich caused the lowest voter turnout. But Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Carly Fiorina all saw lower voter turnouts compared with Trump.
Kasich would have the lowest turnout if you measured Republican voters only. That's also true with independents. Here's Trump's take on the matter:
Donald Trump tweet about Kasich
But if you look at Democrats, the candidate that causes them the least worry is Fiorina. If she were on the ballot against Clinton, that's when the most blue voters stay home. Somehow the threat of Fiorina isn't strong enough to get them to show up.
This is all data from Fluent, a leading consumer marketing and advertising technology firm. The company counts many top political campaigns as clients, including some of the leading 2016 presidential hopefuls. The survey was conducted on Nov. 18 among 2,026 adult Americans.
The lagging candidates "need to really start beating the drum and getting their 'brands' out there," said Jordan Cohen, Fluent's chief marketing officer. He said they "should be focused right now on lower cost, higher return marketing investments," which could help to hire PR operatives or running TV ads. One example of that low cost approach is building out an email list and then sending emails to that group to bring in donors. President Barack Obama mastered that approach in his 2008 and 2012 wins.
And for those wondering, according to the latest polls from RealClearPolitics, Clinton would win most of these head-to-head battles. It's still very early in the cycle, so a lot is going to change. That's the one thing we know for sure.
