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Oil isn't predicting a recession, here why: Yardeni

Oil fell to a six-year low Monday but one widely followed market strategist says it is no indication that the U.S. is on the brink of a recession.

"Clearly commodity producers went on an expansion binge over the last decade or so, anticipating a commodities super cycle because they expected a China super cycle. They just built way too much capacity relative to what the world really needs," Ed Yardeni told CNBC's "Fast Money" traders Monday. "So the plunge in commodities prices to a large extent is more supply driven than demand driven. Demand has obviously slowed down."

Commodities fell across the board in Monday's session. WTI, Brent crude and natural gas all dropped more than 5 percent; a downtrend that has continued due to sheer oversupply fears since 2014.

According to Yardeni, the culprit for falling oil prices is simply too much supply, something that ignited a response from producers that is "totally bizarre and disequilibrating."

"What's been going on is iron ore producers, oil producers, other producers, have actually been producing more and that's because they've got to make some debt payments," said Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. "And I also think they're trying to drive out some weaker competitors and they may not realize it but they may be the weaker competitors."

And according to Yardeni, low oil prices should ultimately prove stimulative to the overall economy, and ultimately the stock market.

"I think this is going to be quite positive for the stock market," he said. "I think the Fed's going to realize that the price of oil hasn't stopped falling yet and inflation is still going to be lower. And that argues for maybe a one-and-done [rate increase] on Dec.16 and none and done for most of next year."

Yardeni's S&P 500 target is 2,300 for 2016 and 2,150 for this December — a target he still believes can be achieved.

The S&P 500 closed at 2,077 on Monday. The index was down more than one percent to 2,053 in morning trading Tuesday.