×

Cramer: We will rally if the Fed says this

Jim Cramer wants investors to realize that it is not the end of the world. And once they figure that out, the market tends to rally across the board, just as it did on Tuesday, even if no one knows what the Federal Reserve is going to say on Wednesday.

"At this point, I think the Fed better raise rates, or we will have to conclude that they know something very bad that we haven't heard about yet," the "Mad Money" host said.

If the Fed decides not to raise rates, Cramer thinks that could give the impression that they are being too complacent. Investors would worry that there is real trouble brewing somewhere, despite strong job growth.

But if there is a rate hike and the Fed confirms that it will wait a considerable amount of time before it tightens again, Cramer expects a continuation of Tuesday's rally.





200416915-001
Tim Bradley | Getty Images
"At this point, I think the Fed better raise rates or we will have to conclude that they know something very bad that we haven't heard about yet" -Jim Cramer

So what triggered the big rally on Tuesday? Cramer went down the list of what eased investors' minds.

First, the junk bond market got a bit of a reprieve. Many distressed-debt mutual funds were sold to individuals who may have not been sophisticated enough to know they could lose a lot of money if they tried to get out of the investments.

Read more from Mad Money with Jim Cramer

Cramer Remix: Worst garbage fund I've ever seen
Cramer: Not cautious? You're arrogant or clueless
Cramer: Only thing that can change oil prices now

And while there are strong correlations between this kind of junk paper and a sell-off in the market, many investors breathed a sigh of relief when there were no bank runs on various other mutual funds. That opened the door for buyers to enter back into the market.

The market also got a lot of help from the price of oil, which went back up to $37 a barrel. Given that the worst kind of junk debt is related to energy, any upward move in crude could be seen as a godsend for the markets.

There were also monumental runs in some of the biggest oil companies like Chevron and Exxon, and that made many feel like the worst was over for the oil patch. The agony continues for the smaller companies with stretched balance sheets, though.

Cramer also saw a few other contrary-to-the-end-of-the-world calls that helped the market, such as Valeant. It has received a lot of bad press for its pressured drug selling tactics and price increases. On Tuesday, it announced a big deal with Walgreens, scoring a 16 percent boost for the stock.

"Any market that exhibits crudeness, my new term meaning it goes higher when fuel costs more, is a market that is crazy enough to go down on even a benign Fed statement," Cramer said.

With this in mind, Cramer thinks the market could still rally. But first, it has to get the all clear that these junk bond funds aren't big enough to create massive pain for all.

Questions for Cramer?
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC

Want to take a deep dive into Cramer's world? Hit him up!
Mad Money Twitter - Jim Cramer Twitter - Facebook - Instagram - Vine

Questions, comments, suggestions for the "Mad Money" website? madcap@cnbc.com