Cramer: Be careful—some stocks are up artificially

Finally, redemption season is over! The hedge funds have raised all of the cash they needed to send back to angry investors and tax loss selling has been taken. That is why the averages were able to roar on Wednesday. But Jim Cramer said to be careful, some stocks won't be up for long.

"So, now we need to ask, which stocks are up artificially, and which have staying power? What stocks are down simply because they have been such fabulous performers in 2015 that they are ripe for profit-taking, as opposed to redemptions or tax loss selling?," the "Mad Money" host said.

To assist investors in selecting the right stocks for their portfolio in 2016, Cramer exposed the offending stocks that he thinks are up artificially right now.

One fact that Cramer wants investors to first keep in mind is that the New Year is always greeted with optimism — even if it is totally unwarranted.

A shopper makes a purchase at JC Penney in North Riverside, Illinois.
Getty Images
A shopper makes a purchase at JC Penney in North Riverside, Illinois.
"I don't think the Saudis feel like they have done their job yet. They haven't seen many of our little oil companies go under" -Jim Cramer

With this in mind, Cramer warned to steer clear of Chinese stocks. Every month there are investors who speculate that China will launch a furious stimulus plan to turn this around.

"I don't believe any of it. I think the Chinese government is content with the explosion of consumer spending … If this stimulus talk were for real, then China would need to import huge amounts of iron and coal and copper, but that is just not happening," Cramer said.

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So, for those who are buying stocks like Caterpillar, Cummins, Freeport McMoRan and Joy Global — beware that there will only be a couple of days in the new year when you will be able to profit off of the hope fumes.

Cramer extended that same sell on hope thesis to anything relating to coal, iron or steel, as they all have the ability to bounce right now, too.

The same theory applies to the rebounding retailers like Kohl's, J.C. Penney and Macy's. These stocks were all oversold due to a combination of warm weather impacting sales and Amazon competition.

Next up was oil and gas, and Cramer thinks that the redemptions for hedge funds were particularly bad in this group. But now that the forced selling is over, energy stocks may bounce. The problem is that Cramer suspects that the oil inventory number on Wednesday is short-lived, and the Saudis will keep pumping oil.

"I don't think the Saudis feel like they have done their job, yet. They haven't seen many of our little oil companies go under," Cramer said.

Cramer thinks that while oil can rebound closer to $40, the Saudis won't let it go much higher than that. So, he recommended enjoying the short-term bounce in oil, but for those who own an oil company with a distressed balance sheet, the time to get out is when oil hits $40.

"Enjoy the end of redemption season and tax-loss selling season … and let 'em ride for the next couple of weeks, but don't overstay your welcome," Cramer said.

In the end, fundamentals remain terrible for almost every resource company that rallied on Wednesday, and Cramer does not think that will change any time soon.

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