Three reasons the oil bottom is not in yet: Citigroup's Morse

Three reasons oil prices could dip again: Morse

Crude prices have surged on hopes that OPEC and Russia may reach a deal to curtail output, but oil futures could fall to new lows as soon as next week, said Ed Morse, Citigroup's global head of commodities research.

"It's always tough to call a bottom, but you know we tested the mid-20 range a couple weeks ago. I don't see why that's not likely to happen again over the next few months," Morse told CNBC's "Fast Money: Halftime Report" on Wednesday.

Morse was one of the first analysts to correctly forecast oil falling into the $20s, and he sees three reasons why it could push even lower than U.S. crude's intraday low of $26.19 last week.

First, Iran could increase crude exports as soon as next week, adding to a market that is oversupplied by about 1.5 million barrels a day.

Tehran intends to bring an additional 500,000 barrels per day to market as soon as possible.

Second, crude inventories are building, and as producers run out of space to store their product, pricing pressures will come into play. On Wednesday, the EIA reported U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 8.4 million barrels in the previous week, pushing total oil in storage to a record high.

And finally, economic growth is raising red flags for demand, particularly in China, where expansion slowed to a 25-year low of 6.9 percent in 2015.

"If recent data from China continue in the same vein, that will mean that demand will play an equal role to supply in dragging prices down," Morse said.

As for speculation about production cuts from OPEC and non-OPEC members, Morse said it's important to note that no Saudi sources have yet indicated that the kingdom, the world's top oil exporter, is on board.

A Chinese worker checks the valve of a gas pipe at a natural gas plant in Suining, in southwest China's Sichuan province.
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