The S&P 500 is flirting with the 1,800 level, down 14 percent from its most recent peak. And market watcher Bob Doll said Friday that such a move indicates a 50 percent probability of a recession.
"If we have one, we probably go to 1,600 [on the S&P], if we don't, we can creep back to 2,000. I'm in that camp, I don't think the U.S. will have a recession in 2016," the chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management told CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange."
U.S. stock futures and European stocks were higher Friday, a day after the S&P 500 breached its lowest level in two years before cutting those declines almost in half by the close. The index lost 22 points to finish Thursday at 1,829.
Doll believes oil is the main driver of recession fears. "When oil goes down, the fear is we're heading for a recession because nobody is buying oil, or, when oil goes down the fear is, 'Oh my goodness, all the bad loans on the banks related to energy, I better sell stocks.'"