It's been a long, dry spell. The IPO window has been closed since mid-December, with the exception of a small handful of biotech companies. It has been the victim of poor returns — 70 percent of the IPOs last year are trading below their IPO price — and the market downturn from December through mid-February.
But that may be changing. The two most important indicators of the near-term IPO market — recent IPO prices and the overall market — have dramatically turned around. Consider:
1) the S&P 500 is up roughly 10 percent from its Feb. 11 low,
2) and the Renaissance Capital IPO ETF, a basket of the last 60 IPOs, is up roughly 18 percent in that same period.
Markets are up strongly, with IPOs dramatically outperforming. That is a good sign.
Those kinds of numbers, if they hold up for the next week or so, strongly suggest the IPO window will re-open soon.
But will we see a flood of IPOs, as we did early last year, only to have them disappoint, as so many IPOs did late last summer?