Don't expect the FBI to bounce iPhone sales: Pros

FBI hack won't impact Apple sales: Pro
FBI hack won't impact Apple sales: Pro
Apple rises after DOJ drops case
Apple rises after DOJ drops case
Apple vs. FBI - who won?
Apple vs. FBI - who won?

Even as Apple's fight with the feds fizzles, don't expect nervous iPhone owners to rush out for a more secure upgrade.

After months of trying, the FBI said Monday it had successfully hacked an iPhone owned by a terrorist. The development freed Apple from a legal battle, but with a new security loophole exposed.

Though shares of the technology company rallied 2 percent Tuesday after the news, it's likely to be a wash for the mobile maker's long-term sales, analysts told CNBC.

Apple VP Greg Joswiak announces the new iPhone SE during an Apple special event at the Apple headquarters on March 21, 2016 in Cupertino, California.
Why a third-party hack won't hurt Apple

"I wouldn't necessarily think consumers will upgrade to the device strictly because of a more superior security system," said Angelo Zino, senior industry analyst at S&P Capital IQ. "I think it could be used as a selling point, along with other embedded features that will come with the devices."

The disputed iPhone 5C was hacked in an investigation into married couple who killed 14 people in a mass shooting in San Bernardino, California, in December. In court documents, the FBI argued that messages on shooter Syed Rizwan Farook's iPhone may shed light on the pair's terrorist ties.

But Apple resisted legal pressure to unlock the phone's password, citing the chance of creating a more wide-spread security breach and arguing the investigation overstepped the bounds of the law. That argument swayed CNBC viewers, 57 percent of whom agreed that privacy concerns trumped the needs of law enforcement.

Security has long been part of Apple's brand, but the "mission critical" consideration for upgrades is simply the passage of time, said Gene Munster, managing director and senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray.

Americans support Apple over Feds in privacy debate: Survey

"At two years, regardless of what exciting feature is out there, the phone starts to get slow and the battery starts to wear," Munster said. "The individual features of the phone, camera, Touch ID, 3D Touch, those features tend not to have big impacts on getting people to upgrade."

To be sure, it's still unclear whether new phones will be safe from the method used by the FBI. A lot also depends on how Apple markets the phone, Zino said, and whether it plays up security as a focal point over traditionally-sought features like 32-gigabyte memory, or aesthetic perks like case color or thinness.

Bigger screen sizes can sometimes be a catalyst, Munster said, but aren't expected to change in the rumored release of the iPhone 7, anticipated in September.

As for consumers dumping Apple for another brand, both analysts estimate Apple's retention rate is above 90 percent as consumers cling to familiar operating systems and legacy apps.

The official seal of the Federal Bureau of Investigation is seen on an iPhone's camera screen outside the J. Edgar Hoover headquarters on Feb. 23, 2016, in Washington, D.C.
Apple vs FBI: All you need to know

"I don't necessarily believe there's an actually unhackable system on there," Zino said. "There's not device that a consumer should get completely comfortable not getting hacked. It took significantly longer than I anticipated for [the FBI] to unlock it on their own which could actually be viewed as a positive."

Chatter about the next iPhone comes just a week after Apple's last model, the iPhone SE, debuted at a highly-publicized Cupertino event. Apple hasn't released early order numbers of the cheaper 4-inch device, though independent research suggests sales are 94 percent lower than the iPhone 6S launch, according to Slice Intelligence.

Apple declined to comment on the report.

It will take months to precisely gauge the success of the SE, Zino said, though the low price could actually prompt more sales than he had predicted. But whether the iPhone SE is a splash or a washout, it's unlikely to turn the tide for Apple as Wall Street awaits September's announcement.

"The iPhone 6 was a huge surge," Zino said. "Those initial buyers will come back in to the market."