×

Dow 20,000 still seems far off 17 years after 10K

New York Stock Exchange Chairman Richard Grasso (L) and New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) wear 'Dow 10,000' hats on March 29, 1999.
Henry Ray Abrams | AFP | Getty Images
New York Stock Exchange Chairman Richard Grasso (L) and New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) wear 'Dow 10,000' hats on March 29, 1999.

Tuesday marks the 17th anniversary of when the Dow first closed above 10,000.

Most investors are well aware this important psychological barrier was first reached in 1999, but likely are scratching their heads as to why the blue-chip equity benchmark hasn't been able to replicate this success by reaching 20,000.

Historically, this length of time is not radically different than what we've seen during past cycles. The Dow first reached 1,000 in 1966, which produced a top that lasted largely until the early '80s, nearly 15 years later. In fact, our initial brush with 100 on the Dow occurred in January 1906 and it took nearly 22 years to reach 200, and then 27 years to double again to 400 in late December 1954.

With the Dow caught in between 16,000 and 18,000 the last two years, when can we expect to finally reach our next significant milestone of Dow 20,000?