Federal Reserve

Nail salon jobs mean no Fed rate hikes in 2016: Pro


The U.S. economy isn't strong enough and the quality of new jobs created isn't good enough to warrant a rate rise from the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2016, according to a Standard Chartered research chief.

In December, the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2006 and, during March, several officials from the central bank had indicated investors could see at least two hikes this year.

Janet Yellen
Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

However dovish comments from Janet Yellen last week prompted stocks to rise and the dollar to fall as watchers cooled on the idea of two rises.

David Mann, Head of Asia Research at Standard Chartered says his bank doesn't expect even one rise.

"We actually don't think there will be any more hikes at all. Underlying causes of growth, consumption in particular and credit growth are just not strong enough," he said Monday.

The U.S. economy added a better-than-expected 215,000 jobs in March, the US Department of Labor announced on Friday.

And while the unemployment rate ticked up to 5 percent, economists took that as a sign that people were encouraged enough to begin again to look for work.

However Mann said he didn't believe the type of work would encourage the Fed chair to believe in a full blown U.S. recovery.

"It is dog-walkers; nail salon roles. The quality of job growth is something that Janet Yellen is particularly concerned about."

Mann also felt the impending U.S. election would play its part in keeping rates at current levels.

"Of course the Fed isn't going to say it is political but do you really believe we are going to see a rate hike as that gets even hotter.

"You don't start hiking rates in the face of that [the election] when you don't have a really good reason to. When it is unambiguous then go for it fine," he said.

Is Fed too concerned with rest of world?

Meanwhile Deutsche Bank has been keeping tabs on Janet Yellen's references to global matters.

Following her economic outlook speech last week, the German bank issued a chart counting the number of times Yellen has been using the words 'Global', 'Dollar', and 'China'.

Deutsche Bank

The bank's chief international economist, Torsten Sløk, revealed the tally.

"It is clear that the rest of the world is playing a more and more important role in Fed policy. Time will tell if this is an appropriate strategy," he said.

On Wednesday this week, the minutes of the Fed's March meeting are released.