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The unexpected stock that's doubled this year

Steel yourself: The best-performing stock in the broad S&P 1500 index probably isn't one you'd expect.

Shares of U.S. Steel have risen more than 100 percent this year, for a clean double. This as the stock has benefited from preliminary U.S. duties on certain steel products, which could improve the supply/demand dynamics.

To be sure, this has not been a winning trade over the long term. U.S. Steel has still lost two-thirds of its value over the past five years. And on the credit side, the stock's bonds are rated sub-investment-grade by the three major ratings agencies.

After the stock's tremendous gains, it may about time to take some profits, says Erin Gibbs, equity chief investment officer of S&P Investment Advisory.

"I see the stock as fully valued and I do not see more upside," Gibbs wrote to CNBC. Even if the duties help, the stock will still have to contend with large import levels of steel into the U.S., troubles for the domestic manufacturing sector, a strong U.S. dollar that weighs on commodity prices, and low energy prices that reduce the demand for steel products necessary in oil exploration and production, Gibbs points out.

Valuing the Pittsburgh-based company using traditional methods is a bit of a challenge. The company, which traces its history back to 1901, reported a loss of $1.6 billion last year. And strikingly, analysts don't expect the company to be profitable again until 2018.

Perhaps it is unsurprising that these analysts, as a group, appear to think the stock has run far ahead of its valuation. According to FactSet, the median price target on the stock is $10.50, which is 40 percent below Tuesday's closing price.


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Sara Eisen

Sara Eisen joined CNBC in December 2013 as a correspondent, focusing on the global consumer. She is co-anchor of the 10AM ET hour of CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" (M-F, 9AM-11AM ET), broadcast from Post 9 at the New York Stock Exchange.

In March 2018, Eisen was named co-anchor of CNBC's "Power Lunch" (M-F, 1PM-3PM ET), which broadcasts from CNBC Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.

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