This has also ignited a significant rally in Europe. The European Stoxx 600 is up 2 percent — near the highs for the year — with big moves up in metals on the China news. Banks are also rallying.
This China data, if backed up with additional data, has the potential to be a long-term market mover. Remember the big four volatility factors this year: the Fed, the dollar, oil, and China.
However, one data point does not a trend make. There may have been some calendar effects as well. The Chinese New Year was late in 2015, which may have hurt exports in March of that year.
The Fed and the dollar have been much lower sources of volatility recently. The big question for oil is, "Where's the bottom?" That's still not clear, but the farther we get from that $26 per barrel print on Feb. 11, the more it looks like that was the bottom. Oil is no longer moving the market the same way it did.
That leaves China as the major volatility factor for the markets. See why stability there would be a major mover for world markets?
There's a couple other risks that are on the horizon.
1) Political risk around the U.S. election and around the Brexit debate in the UK and Europe.
2) The biggest risk of all: central banks ineffectiveness. Markets were extremely nervous last week when everyone saw the yen strengthening, despite efforts by officials to jawbone it down. Kuroda's credible is clearly at stake. This is not yet an issue for the ECB's Draghi or the Fed's Yellen, but it is a blip on the horizon.