When oil was trading for about $74 a barrel in late 2014, oil analyst Tom Kloza made what seemed like a crazy call: Oil would fall to $35 in the next year.
Thirteen months later, his prediction came true.
Now, with oil rallying nearly 60 percent off its Feb. 11 low, he's back with another prediction: Don't get too excited.
Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service, said that despite the recent surge, oil is trapped in a tight range between $35 and $45 — even as anticipation grows over potential production cuts that could come Sunday when OPEC and non-OPEC producers meet in Doha, Qatar.
"The expectations are pretty low," said Kloza on CNBC's "Futures Now" on Wednesday. "They have no integrity in terms of compliance and in terms of maintaining cuts."
However, a CNBC survey out Friday of 23 experts found that 56 percent saw a better than 50/50 chance of a freeze agreement.