When oil was trading for about $74 a barrel in late 2014, oil analyst Tom Kloza made what seemed like a crazy call: Oil would fall to $35 in the next year.
Thirteen months later, his prediction came true.
Now, with oil rallying nearly 60 percent off its Feb. 11 low, he's back with another prediction: Don't get too excited.
Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service, said that despite the recent surge, oil is trapped in a tight range between $35 and $45 — even as anticipation grows over potential production cuts that could come Sunday when OPEC and non-OPEC producers meet in Doha, Qatar.
"The expectations are pretty low," said Kloza on CNBC's "Futures Now " on Wednesday. "They have no integrity in terms of compliance and in terms of maintaining cuts."
However, a CNBC survey out Friday of 23 experts found that 56 percent saw a better than 50/50 chance of a freeze agreement.
According to Kloza, investor expectations for any type of freeze are misplaced. He thinks the most likely outcome is no freeze at all. In a note, he said price action this week is a bit of a triumph over reason on the suggestion that a production "freeze" could come out of Doha.
Crude recently crossed above the key 200-day moving average for the first time since July 2014. The move sparked speculation that crude would break out even higher. For now, Kloza isn't in that camp.
"This is not the beginning of the new golden age of oil. That may come next year, and I do think we've seen the lows. But, it's going to be very difficult to mount a rally until the second half of the year," he said.
That's when Kloza acknowledges oil could break the $45 per barrel mark. But, he added, a dramatic move to $50 to $60 is unlikely due to factors such as U.S. inventory levels and consumption slowdowns in the emerging markets.