The S&P is about to fall to 1,670, strategist warns

The S&P 500 has staged an impressive rebound from its memorable mid-February low of 1,810, but the market is about to give back all of those gains and then some, according to investment strategist Larry McDonald.

"We're going to have a very, very tough run in the next six months," McDonald, global head of macro strategy at ACG Analytics and formerly Societe Generale, predicted Thursday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

As McDonald sees it, the market is essentially in a lose-lose position going into the June Federal Reserve meeting, out of which some expect the central bank to announce a second rate rise.

"If they try to hike in June, the dollar's going to rip, oil's going to get slammed, emerging markets are going to get slammed and once again we're going to go risk-off," he said.

If, on the other hand, the Fed doesn't increase rates, "then bad assets, bad loans, more ugly credit formation keeps building. And either way," stocks are set to drop.

Just how far will equities fall?

"I think we're going to break 1,700," and get to "1,670 on the S&P before the end of the year or before first quarter next year," which would be a 20 percent decline from Friday's opening price, he said.

Only time, of course, can tell whether this prediction will come true.

If it does, "that would be a very attractive buy," Eddy Elfenbein of the Crossing Wall Street blog said Thursday, adding, "But I wouldn't be waiting to get to that level."


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Sara Eisen

Sara Eisen joined CNBC in December 2013 as a correspondent, focusing on the global consumer. She is co-anchor of the 10AM ET hour of CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" (M-F, 9AM-11AM ET), broadcast from Post 9 at the New York Stock Exchange.

In March 2018, Eisen was named co-anchor of CNBC's "Power Lunch" (M-F, 1PM-3PM ET), which broadcasts from CNBC Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.

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