Some market watchers have been speculating about how Saudi Arabia and Iran could affect this weekend's oil production-output meeting, but Citigroup's global head of commodity research told CNBC that both countries have been very clear about their next move.
The Saudis do not want to freeze production unless the Iranians participate, while the Iranians refuse to contribute to any output control deal, Ed Morse told "Closing Bell." "The market has had that very clear signal that if there is going to be an agreement, it's going to be kind of a gentlemen's agreement," he said.
Still, oil prices have held at the lower $40 range, after trading in the mid $20 range earlier this year. In the case that no deal is reached, however, Morse predicts a sharp sell-off in the oil market.
"The exceptional length we saw in the market, growing up until this past week, was a reflection of market expectations ... and now it's just too risky to hold that position," Morse said on Friday.