Dow hits 18K, but chart analysts aren't buying

Published Mon, Apr 18 20163:25 PM EDTUpdated Sat, Oct 14 201710:44 AM EDT

Defying a plunge in oil prices and concerns about a weak economy, the Dow Jones industrial average closed above 18,000 Monday for the first time since July. Is the bull market back in full swing or is this just another trading head fake? CNBC Pro asked several technical analysts to consider the current prospects for the Dow now that it's back to this emotional milestone. Here is what they said. Source: FactSet Asbury Research chief market strategist John Kosar said that the recent strength is likely due to seasonal patterns and that a downdraft may be coming. The area around 17,900 and 18,000 "may be a particularly formidable level to get through, at least on the first attempt, as almost 60 years of seasonality data indicate that this is the seasonally strongest week of the entire second quarter, after which the U.S. broad market has historically declined into quarter end," Kosar wrote in an email. Since December 2014, the Dow has tried to break out above 18,000 many times. The latest attempt in November of last year led to a violent breakdown that took the Dow back below 16,000 before it was all said and done. Read More Pro Talks: How Navellier wins the earnings game "I would want to see some consolidation and digestion of these gains before putting on any new longs. There are much better places to be right now outside of the Dow Jones Industrial Average," J.C. Parets, Eagle Bay Capital's president said. "The time to be buying was when momentum diverged positively in early February, not today. We want to be fading this strength and booking profits." One analyst told us the long-term bullish picture for the Dow is still in place as long as the Dow stays above 17,000 this summer. Source: Kimble Charting Solutions "Dow remains above the top of this 20-year 'megaphone' pattern," Kimble Charting Solutions founder Chris Kimble wrote in an email. "A close above last year's highs would be considered a bullish event, should it take place." Read More Pro Strategy: Follow investing legend Jeff Vinik

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CNBC Pro asked several technical analysts to consider the current prospects for the Dow now that it's back to this emotional milestone. Here is what they said.