We looked at major Trump-related events in the analytics tool Kensho and found a similar lack of reaction. Days with Trump campaign speeches and days in which Trump's chances of winning rose or fell at least 2 percent in a single day behaved the same as any other trading day.
According to a new CNBC survey, Trump's popularity on Wall Street has fallen substantially in recent weeks. In March, 13 percent of the economists, fund managers and strategists surveyed thought he was the best economic option for president — this month it's just 4 percent.
John Kasich is the most popular on Wall Street, but no one said they thought he had a shot at the presidency. The other candidates in the race also showed no correlation with daily stock market movements.
Right now, Trump's chances are around 25 percent — he has to finish vanquishing Ted Cruz and then overcome his Democratic contender. Maybe Wall Street will take note if he gets above 50 percent. But for now, all the talk of massive market movements in response to a Trump presidency is just talk and nothing more.
Disclosure: NBCUniversal, parent of CNBC, is a minority investor in Kensho.