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Apple is not doomed! Four reasons why you shouldn't give up on the stock

It's not easy being a bull on Apple right now, given a comprehensively disappointing earnings report this week. With the company missing revenue and earnings expectations, the bears on Apple understandably are having a field day exclaiming that they've been right the whole time; Apple is doomed.

To be sure, there was little to be enthusiastic about after Apple's latest earnings release and conference call. Importantly, Apple's biggest growth market, China, was a surprising disappointment, which further underscored the reality that China's economy is struggling. Like many multinational companies, Apple's growth trajectory is significantly impacted by the state of Chinese consumption; Apple is not immune to macro conditions impacting the Chinese consumer.

So where is the real hope in Apple's earnings call? This quarter's earnings provide no silver lining and one instead must look past this quarter's earnings (and probably next quarter's results) to continue to be positive about Apple's prospects. Here are four reasons why it isn't time to give up on Apple stock:

1. New lower-priced phones. While Apple iPhone sales declined for the first time, results do not reflect the new lower-priced iPhone that will likely capture market share from competitors. While margins are lower on this product, it reflects Apple's understanding that scale must be combined with margins to continue above-average profitability.

2. Research and development continues to be a huge line item for Apple, suggesting that they are not simply banking on past products for future growth. Rumors of an automotive program as well as augmented reality suggests Apple is not in denial that they need additional market segments to continue strong growth.

3. A healthy product mix. Apple services, including cloud services, music offerings, and Apple Pay, are a recognition that services and ongoing revenue are an important part of a healthy product mix. IBM recognized this 20 years ago when they shifted from hardware to services and Apple will need to shift their product mix if they wish to negate the saturation problem with hardware that comes when channels become more mature.

4. Apple is still massively profitable, pays a dividend, has huge cash reserves, and built-in consumers for future upgrades.



The game is not over for Apple and there have been many times this company has been counted out. It's easy to forget how dismissive many were of the company's future prospects when Tim Cook became CEO. This time, it's understable, given the disappointing earnings report, but I think this is a huge overreaction.

If you are buying Apple stock as a short-term investment, you going to be in for a very bumpy ride. I was not surprised that this week's report was less than rosy and frankly I don't expect the next two quarters to be terribly encouraging either. For that reason, it's pretty daunting to speculate on this name in the short-term.

If, however, you are an Apple investor for the long-term, look at this week's report with concern and analyze what future growth rates will look like. Assume a slowdown is occurring in core products. And when you factor in these negatives, analyze the profitability of the company, its cash position, the current price-earnings and price-to-book multiples, and return on equity. You'll see that this company still is incredibly strong financially despite this week's report.


It's going to take patience as an Apple investor for the next six months. Everyone's going to tell you that you've lost your mind staying with a once great company that is now in significant decline. Resist the temptation to believe the negativity. We are not happy about this week's report but see plenty of reasons to be long-term bullish on Apple. There's still hope for the belief that Apple can continue to be a great candidate to be a key part of a core portfolio strategy.

Commentary by Michael A. Yoshikami, the CEO and founder of Destination Wealth Management in Walnut Creek, California. He is also a CNBC contributor. Follow DWM on Twitter @DestinationWM.

Disclosure: Michael Yoshikami does not own shares of Apple and has no investment-banking relationships with the company. But Destination Wealth Management may buy shares for clients.

For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.