Following the release of the minutes, the market adjusted its rate expectations. Just before the Wednesday afternoon release, traders had assigned virtually no chance of a June move. As of midday Thursday, the probability went to 26 percent, though that was down from 34 percent the day before.
The calculus will be delicate: Both sides will have to get on the same page regarding economic growth, which has been uneven. If Fed speakers between now and the June meeting can make the case that the economy can handle another quarter-point hike, then the market reaction might not be so bad. If not, things could get ugly.
"Until very recently, the market's view of the economy was a lot weaker and a lot softer than the Fed's. The market may be frustrated," Blitzer said. "Part of what we see is then market is slowly revising its view to be close to the Fed."
The first two Fed speakers after Wednesday's release offered only measured guidance. New York Fed President Bill Dudley reiterated the notion that the Fed will hike rates if the data comply, hardly an earth-shaking sentiment, though he did add that he was happy market expectations had adjusted to at least the possibility of a summer move.
Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer earlier in the day steered clear of prognostication, opining only that the economy needs faster growth.
Amid it all, the market remained unconvinced the Fed will move, and that could be the biggest vote of all. After all, the 26 percent chance of a rate hike the market assigned to June, while substantially higher than in recent weeks, still indicates a 74 percent chance that the Fed won't hike.
"The Fed continues to prove their adeptness of getting market participants to continue to run from one side of the boat to the other," Brett F. Ewing, chief market strategist at First Franklin Financial, and S. Lance Mitchell, the firm's research director, said in a note.
"We continue to believe there is little to no chance of a rate hike in June and that the Fed minutes are akin to knowing you're being recorded and the need to say something one half the people will agree with while actually doing the thing with which the other half agrees."