The stock market doesn't believe oil should be $50

Oil natural gas drilling
Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images

The price of U.S. crude is up more than 34 percent this year, trading briefly above $50 a barrel Thursday morning. Yet shares of U.S. energy companies in the S&P 500 are up just over 11 percent year to date. Based on the historical correlation of the two, either crude oil is overvalued or energy stocks are a screaming buy here, according to Convergex chief market strategist Nicholas Colas.

"It seems that equity investors are simply skeptical that the current move in crude is sustainable," Colas wrote in a note. "Crude is trading at new highs for 2016, while the large cap energy sector is not. One of those prices is wrong."

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