Nomura has declared a Donald Trump presidency as a major market risk, predicting turbulence ahead if the presumptive Republican nominee takes up residence in the White House.
"No matter what, I think a Trump victory is not good in terms of the financial market reaction," Craig Chan, head of foreign-exchange strategy for Asia ex-Japan at Nomura, said on the sidelines of the Nomura Investment Forum in Singapore Tuesday. "From an economic-financial- political angle, there are huge risks."
Chan, who co-wrote a Nomura report earlier this week highlighting strategies to position for "trade-unfriendly" policies if Trump wins the election, noted that China would be a key focus.
"He's said so much about China, from saying 'I'll name them a foreign-exchange currency manipulator on day one,' to imposing a 45 percent tariff on all Chinese goods, to saying that he wants to stop U.S. manufacturing firms from investing overseas," Chan said.
While Chan added much of that manifesto would be difficult to implement, citing as an example that China doesn't actually meet the legal test to be labeled a currency manipulator, he noted it makes for a lot of uncertainty in markets.
Other Asian nations have begun to express concern, if only obliquely, over U.S.-China ties in the event of a Trump presidency.
"An accommodative relationship between the U.S., a world superpower, and China, a rising power, is critical to Asia's future. A conflict between them will be disastrous for all," Goh Chok Tong, who was Singapore's prime minister from 1990 to 2004 and is currently its emeritus senior minister, said at the Nomura forum Monday.
"Trade is the lifeblood of the region," Goh added.
Singapore often acts as a quiet mediator of disputes across Asia.