The week began with promise on Monday before giving back all gains on Friday: We were greeted with emails from our managers revealing significant outperformance for May and then listened as Janet Yellen responded to Friday's weak payroll report, assuaging any concerns about a June rate hike, driving indexes higher.
Perhaps we were in the minority, but we detected an overall hawkish tone to her speech, leaving alive the possibility of a July increase. With the June 23 Brexit vote occurring after the June 14 FOMC meeting, the July 25 meeting was always the more likely timeline for the Fed to act despite the lack of a scheduled press conference.
The economy is less than robust and a Brexit could potentially derail what momentum there is. Why? Because a destabilizing European Union would further strengthen the dollar against the euro, the British pound and, in all likelihood, the yuan as well.