Stay in or stay out?
That was the initial issue for the Brexit vote, but now it's more complicated. The market has gyrated so much that traders are no longer sure how much the market might move, regardless of whether the public votes to stay or remain in the European Union (EU).
I said on Thursday that the markets had sold off so much on exit concerns that the risk then was to the upside. That is, the market was going a long way toward pricing in a Brexit already. The pain trade (the trade that would cause the greatest amount of pain to active market participants) was therefore higher, because everyone was starting to position for the likelihood of an exit.
What a difference two trading days make. The FTSE has risen nearly 5 percent from its bottom on Thursday as the polls have shown stronger support for remaining in the EU following the murder of British MP Jo Cox. Even the S&P 500 Index has staged a notable turnaround: It bottomed on Thursday at 2,050 and has moved nearly 50 points (about 2.5 percent) in two trading sessions.