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Cramer's Trump vs Clinton: Biggest stock winners of the election

After months of tough debates, the presidential candidates have finally been whittled down to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. And now that the primaries are over, Jim Cramer expects a significant amount of money to be spent in order to attract votes.

"This election has broken records in terms of ad spending, and that was just during the primaries. Now that we are moving into the general, I expect this trend to continue," the "Mad Money" host said.

Regardless of investors' political beliefs, there is no denying that the election season represents a huge windfall for companies selling advertising space. Additionally, the biggest beneficiaries from spending tend to be local television stations, particularly those with a presence in key swing states.

"Presidential election years are a gold mine for companies in the broadcast television business," Cramer said. (Tweet This)

The difference between the primary and general elections is that it is easier to gauge where the candidates will advertise in order to try to win in November. It is also easier to know where the Senate will be advertising as well, so Cramer determined what players are in a position to make the most from political ads.

Cramer pointed to Tegna, E. W. Scripps, Gray Television, Entravision Communications and Nextar Broadcasting Group as the biggest potential election beneficiaries. He analyzed each one to determine the winners.





Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, presidential candidates
Reuters
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, presidential candidates

Tegna is the broadcasting and digital business that was the result of a break-up with Gannett, the newspaper company that owns USA Today. Since the companies began trading independently, Gannett's stock has rallied more than 9 percent, while Tegna has plunged more than 30 percent.

However, Tegna owns network affiliates in major cities in swing states like Florida, Ohio, Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia. In times of peak demand, local broadcast stations in the right location can sell political ads for 40 to 50 times what they would normally charge, thus there could be opportunity for Tegna ahead.

While Cramer thinks it is too early to recommend Tegna as an investment due to its digital weakness, he did bless it as a speculative trade going into the election. However, if the company can turn things around digitally, it could be worth owning, he said.

"Overall, we could see anywhere from $3.4 to $5.9 billion spent on broadcast ads this cycle, meaning we are looking at record breaking numbers," Cramer said.

Out of the four remaining broadcasters, Cramer deemed Nextar as too much of a wild-card due to uncertainties surrounding the Media General merger.

As for Entravision, the leading Latino-oriented media company in the U.S., Cramer had some reservations with Trump. The Latino demographic has become important to American politics, especially at a presidential level.

"Whether you love Trump or hate him, I think anyone can admit that he doesn't seem particularly interested in courting the Hispanic vote," Cramer said.

He doubts that either Clinton or Trump campaigns will be in a bidding war for Entravision Univision affiliates.

Ultimately Cramer thinks Scripps could work as a trade going into the election, and Gray Television as an investment to own into November and perhaps afterward.

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