If the U.K. votes to leave the European Union on June 23, emerging markets might not have much to fear unless the vote has a severe impact on Europe as a whole, according to Patrick Mange, the head of Asia-Pacific and emerging market strategy at BNP Paribas.
Voter polls ahead of the forthcoming referendum show that the race between those in the remain and leave camps is still very tight with voters polarized over key issues in the debate such as the economy, immigration and the benefits of EU membership.
Much attention has focused on the potential economic impact on the U.K. itself should a majority vote to leave the EU, but not so much on the impact on Europe and even less so on emerging markets. The latter may be geographically distant from the U.K. and the EU but nonetheless dependent on the bloc to a certain extent in terms of exports and domestic growth.
Mange said that a potential Brexit would have a limited effect on emerging markets – as long as Europe as a whole remained robust if the U.K. left the 28-member economic and political bloc.