Imagine this week that the exit vote prevails, the U.K. government stands down and in a ripple effect not seen in Europe since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the immediate dissolution of the EU is announced and there is a return to national currencies.
Equities would plunge and trading in the euro currency would be suspended. European bourses would go into free-fall, continuing even after the U.K., the U.S. and others initially appear to stabilize. Each country's no longer fungible euro would be converted into national currencies and chaos would reign until many EU national governments bail out banks.
The uncertainty caused would puncture China's debt bubble, hitting emerging and developed markets. After a few years of global pain, by 2018 to 2020 peripheral Europe, the U.K., the U.S. and 'healthier" emerging economies might begin to recover. Recovery in Germany and China, however, may take far longer.