The third quarter is also a time when the U.S. election will come to the forefront for markets, and that could bring its own volatility.
"What we saw in the last week, we could envision happening three or four times before the election. This is a year where there's a lot of uncertainty. The international situation is not going to resolve itself any time soon," said UBS' Emanuel. "You still have a political void in the U.K. that's at least a couple months away from getting filled. There's going to be lots of fluctuations. In the U.S., it would probably be improper not to expect volatility leading up to the conventions and coming out of the conventions."
The Republican convention starts July 18, and the Democratic convention is a week later. Analysts say the market could be volatile around the conventions, since they often give their respective candidates a bump in the polls.
Wall Street widely expects Democrat Hillary Clinton to win the presidential race, so if Republican Donald Trump comes out of the convention stronger, the markets are likely to react.
"If that gap narrows, that creates volatility, because I think markets will be more comfortable with a Clinton presidency than a Trump presidency," said John Canally, strategist and economist at LPL Financial.
Emanuel expects the market volatility to lead to a higher market, with the S&P at 2,175 by year end.
He studied market responses when voters were restless and wanted candidates who represent change, such as when Ronald Reagan was elected. "The voters want change. We're not talking about policy change. We're talking about a businessman with no political experience or the first woman president, so there's going to be change," said Emanuel.
"When you look at all those change election years, once the electorate was comfortable with their ultimate selection, the year following the vote was quite positive," he said, noting those years have been positive for technology.