Trader makes a ‘high-probability’ bet on gold’s next move

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Gold is on track for its first weekly loss since May, but one trader expects the metal's slide to stop soon, and that has him looking for a way to play the gold miners.

While gold miners have flattened out this month despite rallying 117 percent from the beginning of the year, Todd Gordon of TradingAnalysis.com believes the metal is more likely to rise than fall from current levels.

"The gold market trades at an inverse relationship to the S&P 500," he said Friday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "So what's happening is the S&P 500 is breaking out to new highs as gold moves down into support. I think it's a good time to buy gold at support as the S&P is getting a little overbought."

On a daily chart of the gold miners ETF (GDX), Gordon points out that the miners have consolidated around $30. He establishes new support levels with $27.50 on the low end and $28.50 on the high end.

To capitalize on this view, Gordon wants to sell August 29-strike put options and buy the August 27-strike puts for a total credit of about $0.60, or $60 per contract. The numbers mean that Gordon is risking $140 to make $60.

While Gordon is risking more than he could possibly make, he sees a high probability of success for his GDX trade, with a 65 to 70percent chance the trade works out. As long as the GDX closes above $27, Gordon will get to keep that $60 premium.

"If the trade moves too much below that short strike around $27, let's get out of the trade and salvage any premium that we can," he said.

The GDX hovered just below $30 during Friday trading.