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Don't expect another Apple miss: Kensho

Apple missed estimates last quarter, but a second straight miss is rare. That could be good for Apple shares.

Three months ago, Apple stunned Wall Street as earnings missed consensus estimates by a whopping 10 cents per share, and sales declined year-over-year for the first time since 2003. It also lowered expectations for the next quarter. So what will the company have to say on Tuesday, and how should investors react?

Missing estimates is a relatively rare event for Apple. According to Kensho, Apple earnings have missed estimates just 38 times in the last 126 quarters, and only four times since the first iPhone came out in 2007. Those misses have been bad for Apple shares, which have lost an average of 3.85 percent in the week following those 4 misses. Only one company in its supply-chain ecosystem, the video game software creator Glu Mobile, has performed worse.

This time around, analysts expect earnings of $1.38 per share, which would be down year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. It's also expected to report another year-over-year decline in sales.

On the other hand, Apple hasn't missed in consecutive quarters since 2012, and has reported earnings above expectations more than 68 percent of the time. So history suggests Apple could be due for a good week if it manages to beat the lowered expectations. Shares have traded higher by an average of 1.82 percent in the week after an earnings beat. The suppliers, however, haven't all followed suit.