The last four times this happened, stocks soared — and it’s happening again

As the S&P 500 surges to record highs, Oppenheimer's head of technical analysis sees a pattern that suggests more gains are likely in the weeks ahead.

It all comes down to market breadth — that many stocks are participating in a market surge, Ari Wald told CNBC. He points out that the percentage of stocks that are trading above their average close over the past 200 days has hit 70 percent.

This indicator marks a "resumption of strength like it did in 1995, 2003, 2009 and 2012," Wald said Thursday on "Trading Nation."

This isn't the only historical parallel that convinces Wald the market bounce still has legs.

Wald points out that since the 1950s, every time the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high after being below its prior high for at least a year, the next 12 months are up an average of 14 percent, according to a study conducted at Oppenheimer. It's been positive 12 out of 13 times since 1950 when this situation arose.

"All-time highs are bullish," Wald said.

Wald said he sees the S&P going to 2,250 by the end of 2016, and for those looking to profit from the rally, the recent breakout at 2,135 is an "attractive entry point."


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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