Using Estimize, which collects thousands of estimates from real investors, CNBC PRO looked at which of the big four have the best chance of a big earnings beat that sends the stock soaring.
There are two that could post big surprises.
Below are the current Estimize crowdsourced estimates versus the Wall Street analyst consensus estimate.
Amazon is expected to surprise by the most when it reports after the bell Thursday, with Estimize calling for EPS 10 percent higher than Wall Street's estimate. Facebook and Apple are also expected to top the Street.
The table below gives some perspective that may give you the trade. Facebook is the only company that reliably tops the Estimize estimate, posting better-than-expected results more than three-fourths of the time. Amazon's track record is pretty dismal, topping estimates just 42 percent of the time.
Bottom line: Investors are most enthusiastic about Amazon and Facebook, but only Facebook has a reliable track record of exceeding those expectations.