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Pro Analysis

New high benchmark trifecta is actually bearish

Trifecta
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The Nasdaq composite, S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600 indexes simultaneously closed in record territory for the first time since April 1998 on Friday, an unusual, broad-based bull market feat that may actually mean lower-than-average returns are ahead, S&P Capital IQ U.S. equity strategist Sam Stovall wrote in a note to clients.

"Now that the indices are rowing in harmony like a medal-winning crew team, will they go on to capture the gold or end up fading at the finish?" asked the note.

"History advises investors to temper their enthusiasm, for not only did all three benchmarks record below-average price gains in the three, six and 12 months after setting simultaneous ATHs, but also saw lower-than-average frequencies of recording price increases in the months ahead."