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Summertime market may keep making new highs while the bears are away

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Bulls could keep the market rally going until the last of the kids go back to school — and the bears return from vacation.

Stocks broke out to new highs this past week in the three key indexes — the Dow, the and Nasdaq — for the first time since 1999. That was seen as a positive, pointing to further gains if oil and other market concerns don't get in the way.

"We're encouraged by the fact that all these indices made highs, but at the same time we think investors are way too complacent about the risks out there right now. Last August, our summer was cut short by two weeks because of China [currency devaluation]. This time, the volatility came meaningfully before the fourth of July, so I think people aggressively seized this vacation season," said Julian Emanuel, equity and derivatives strategist at UBS. "The true threat coming this fall is the political uncertainty."