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How one trader plans to make a 300% profit on Netflix

Netflix hit a rough patch earlier this summer, but one trader says he sees upside — a lot of it — as we head into the fall.

"Netflix has been in a range here, as the S&P has hit an all-time high. We see every time it sells off, and gets to the $85 level, it finds buyers. When we get to that $100 level, we find sellers. So, what to make of it?" said Andrew Keene, founder of AlphaShark.com.

"The next catalyst will be earnings," Keene said Thursday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

Jumping to the $115 a share level would mean nearly a 20 percent surge for the stock, which closed Thursday above $96. Netflix next quarterly earnings report is Oct. 12.

Netflix shares fell more than 13 percent in July after its earnings report fell short of analysts' expectations and the streaming service's new subscribers numbers fell well short of expectations. Since the drop in July, the stock has climbed back up by about 12 percent.

Keene believes the stock could re-test highs from the beginning of January, when it was above $110. "I think it will take out $100 here; I think it will move on its way to $115," he said.

To capitalize on his expectations, Keene turns to the options market. Specifically, he is buying the December 105-strike call and selling the December 115-strike call, for a total of $2.50.

If Netflix shares close on December expiration at or above $115, the call spread will be worth $15, for a profit of $7.50, or 300 percent.

On the other hand, if Netflix shares fail to rise by then, the call spread will expire worthless.


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Brian Sullivan

Brian Sullivan is co-anchor of CNBC's "Power Lunch" (M-F,1PM-3PM ET), one of the network's longest running programs, as well as the host of the daily investing program "Trading Nation." He is also a frequent guest on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" and other NBC properties.

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