Clinton is most closely aligned with health care and biotech stocks, and the biotechs have seesawed with Hillary rising and falling in the polls, he said. But both candidates' portfolios include health care names.
The Clinton portfolio contained Mylan because of its cost-saving generic drugs. But Mylan stock was crushed late last month because of Clinton's criticism about its pricing of the live-saving allergy medicine EpiPen. The Trump portfolio, on the other hand, holds Amgen, Celgene, and Pfizer. A Republican win could take pressure off the concerns about drug price regulations, and Pfizer also would benefit if there is a Republican win and a tax deal on repatriation of profits.
"As her probability of being elected goes up, biotech stocks underperform the S&P 500. What's been happening as her probability goes up, biotechs go down, and as her probability goes down, biotech goes up. It's been a roller coaster ride throughout the election," Clifton said.
Clifton assigned Trump a broader group of diversified financials, like regional banks, Morgan Stanley and AIG. He did not include other major banks, which both parties have said could be broken up.
The financials have done well, helping the Republican portfolio. "You're seeing those stocks really catching a bid. A lot of this is anti-Hillary stuff. She's talking about a financial transaction tax," he said. The Democrat's financial names include insurers AON, Marsh and McLennan, Berkshire Hathaway and Welltower, a health care REIT.
He said Trump is more pro-defense, though both candidates would be good for the sector.
The Republican portfolio:
Cifton said that if Trump starts to lead, there could be a market selloff, so he has included a Short S&P 500 ETF and long volatily VIXY.
Health Care – Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Vertex, Amgen, Celgene, Pfizer, Boston Scientific, Express Scripts
Defense – Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Raytheon, Cummins, Textron
Financials – Intercontinental Exchange, AIG, Navient, Discover Financial Service, BB&T
Energy – Consol Energy, Devon Energy, Baker Hughes
Housing – Toll Brothers
For-Profit Education – Devry
Immigration Reform – Geo Group, Tetra Tech
Minimum Wage – Chipotle
Telecom – AT&T
The Democratic portfolio:
A Clinton victory is 86 percent correlated to the S&P 500, and a Clinton win represents the status quo, according to Clifton. The Clinton portfolio is long the S&P with a holding in S&P 500 SPDR ETF SPY.
Health Care – HCA Holdings, Universal Health Services, Centene, Aetna, Mylan, WellCare Health Plans, Dentsply Sirona, Cerner
Infrastructure – Vulcan Materials, Quanta Services, Granite Construction, Jacobs Engineering, Fluor, Nucor, Crown Castle
Alternative Energy – NextEra, First Solar, SolarCity
Financials - AON, Marsh McLennan , Berkshire Hathaway, Welltower
Municipal Bonds – SPDR Nuveen Barclays Municipal Bond ETF, TFI, iShares National Muni Bond ETF MUB
Defense/Export Bank – Boeing, L-3 Communications
Consumer Discretionary - Dollar General
Consumer Staples – Tyson Foods
Railroads – Kansas City Southern