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Oil’s not going above $55 for years, and here’s why: Gartman

Oil's struggles continue and according to one expert, investors shouldn't expect the commodity to break through $55 for a few years.

The problem lies with the oil glut as supply continues to outpace demand. Despite recent optimism around talks between Russia and Saudi Arabia that could result in reduced output, Dennis Gartman, editor of The Gartman Letter, doesn't see the supply issue easing.

Gartman's main focus has been on the oil futures curve, and that the contango has been widening as of late. Contango is the difference between oil contracted for near-term delivery and crude slated for delivery further in the future.

"There will be no freeze of any consequence," Gartman said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "The contangos continue to widen, which tells you that there is an abundance of supply in the market. As long as the contangos continue to widen, as crude oil bids for storage, prices are going to head lower."

Even if Russia and Saudi Arabia formally agreed to put a cap on crude production in the future, Gartman sees U.S. oil producers continuing to flood the market.

"It's only the utterly incompetent drillers who can't make money at these prices," said Gartman. "So, the amount of crude oil that's going to come out of the Bakken, out of the Permian, out of Eagle Ford, is just going to be very large."

"The Saudis, the Iranians and the Russians have nothing they can say to us to tell us to stop our own production and we won't," he said.

As a result, Gartman believes that oil's supply concerns mean the commodity's price will be capped.

"The reality is we're going to be stuck for several years between $35 on the low end, and $55 on the high," he said.

Oil was up more than 1 percent midday Wednesday.


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