Citi ups forecast for Trump win to 40%; says Clinton suffering from 'enthusiasm gap'

With 50 days to go, analysts at Citi have increased their forecast for a Donald Trump victory at November's presidential elections.

"We reduce the probability of a Clinton victory to 60 percent from 65 percent, with a 40 percent probability of a Trump win," a global team of political analysts, led by Tina Fordham, said in a note on Monday,

"Hillary Clinton still has a much more mathematically straightforward path to victory in the Electoral College vote, but suffers from an 'enthusiasm gap' that may affect support at the polls on November 8, with Trump voters significantly more likely to say they intend to vote."

The last time Citi rated Trump's chance of success, on Tuesday, it gave the billionaire reality TV star a 35 percent chance of a win. The U.K.'s Brexit vote and heightened "vox populi" risk in advanced economies were two reasons for the change, as well as concerns that polling methods may not be capturing marginalized voters, according to Citi.

"Improvements in the economy, (President Barack) Obama's approval ratings and support from college-educated voters support Clinton, while voters with low trust in the political system and confidence in the U.S. economy support Trump," Citi added.

Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton are in a tight race for the presidency with a CBS/New York Times poll last week indicating that Clinton has just a 2-point edge. The race is tied when third party candidates are included, the poll indicated.


A recent Washington Post-ABC News showed that 93 percent of pro-Trump registered voters said they would be certain to vote, while just 80 percent of Clinton's supporters said they're certain to vote.

This year would be a "sell-off" if Trump wins in November, according to Steven Englander, global head of G-10 FX strategy at Citi. However, he told CNBC on Monday that 2017 could prove to be a better year for investors depending on what policies he opts for.

"2017, the question would be: Does he do the Reagan thing and emphasize tax cuts and getting the U.S. economy going? Or does he hammer the trade thing, which I think would be very difficult for markets over an extended period?" Englander said.