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Sarepta Therapeutics skyrocketed 73 percent on Monday on the news that the FDA approved its treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. For Jim Cramer, this is the best-case scenario for an investor that owns a speculative biotech like Sarepta.
Not every development-stage biotech story plays out this way, though. Sometimes, the data can be disappointing, or the FDA blocks a key drug and the stock plummets. Cramer wants investors to understand that an early-stage biotech can be speculative.
One speculative biotech that landed on Cramer's radar was Seres Therapeutics, which traded between $20 and the mid-$30s until July, when disaster struck. Seres reported disappointing clinical trial data for its key drug, prompting the stock to lose nearly 70 percent of its value.
With the stock closing at $12 on Monday, the risk-reward is more attractive to Cramer than it was when it was in the $20s or $30s. With full clinical trial results that will likely be received by the end of the year, there could be a huge upside.
"It seems like a negative outcome is pretty much baked into the stock price, which means if anything goes right here — kind of like what happened to Sarepta — then Seres could have some tremendous upside," Cramer said.
However, it is important to remember that the position would be on speculation, not an investment, Cramer said. That means investors should only buy Seres or similar early stage biotechs, if it is money they are willing to lose.
"This is my big, bad event theory, where once an event transpires, even if the outcome is suboptimal, money from the sidelines starts to come back in as investors who were waiting for an event to happen feel safe to start buying again," Cramer said.
The key to a Fed meeting, Cramer said, is to remember that while everyone else is worried about the big event, investors need to be prepared for what happens afterwards. That means knowing what stocks will go up once the event ends.
Buyers coming in from the sidelines could be discouraged by the election or a hawkish statement. That could translate to more muted buying than usual. Either way, Cramer still looked for the perfect post-Fed play. Amazon made sense to Cramer as the perfect play for the Fed meeting.
"I think buyers should be looking for who has growth, and stock with that thesis no matter what," Cramer said.
Back in January, Coach reported a strong quarter and it seemed to Cramer that the handbag and accessories retailer could finally be making a comeback. For the next five months the stock climbed higher, then stalled out two months ago and has since gone downhill.
In April, Coach reported a top and bottom line beat with flat North American same-store sales. While the flat numbers did not impress Cramer, they were still an improvement from double-digit declines the company had the prior year.
In August, Coach delivered another earnings-per-share beat, and its North American same-store sales grew 2 percent.
"These last two quarters made me feel like Coach had truly gotten its act together and the comeback was too legit to quit," Cramer said.
Regardless of Cramer's opinion, the stock has dropped to $36 from $40 since the company reported in August. Last week, analysts at Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight, and questioned the turnaround. They believed that while Coach has hit its targets, it has been doing so in an unhealthy way.
However, Cramer still thinks the turnaround at Coach is real, especially with a reinvigorated management team and an attractive stock price.
Cramer expects the price of oil to stay in the $40s for a while, but he still sees plenty of opportunities in the oil patch. He called Anadarko Petroleum's recent move one of the best he has ever seen.
Last week, Anadarko announced it would acquire Freeport-McMoRan's deep water oil assets in the Gulf of Mexico for $2 billion.
"You better believe that deal caught my attention. I think this is a brilliant move by Anadarko that is going to pay off big time, especially because Freeport really desperately needed to sell those assets," he said.
Cramer has been watching the high-quality exploration and production companies that issue stock to buy lucrative oil and gas assets. Oil companies like PDC Energy, SM Energy and Pioneer Natural Resources have all made opportunistic moves to buy acreage and turn a profit drilling, and Cramer thinks it is a fantastic strategy.
The ridiculous linkage between the price of oil and the stock market also has Cramer's head spinning. He has detected a pattern of oil pricing and does not think it is a coincidence.
The pattern is simple. Every time oil falls to the low $40s, a rumor surfaces from oil producers that a production freeze is about to happen.
"This kind of rumor-mongering still does exactly what the world's oil ministers want. It's incredible, it's ridiculous, but it works every time," Cramer said.
Cramer watched as the rumors played out on Monday, after the price of oil was hammered last week. Prices fell, and sure enough, the oil ministers played their part to send it back up.
In the Lightning Round, Cramer gave his take on a few caller favorite stocks:
Clorox: "I would like to hold it here. Clorox is down 18 straight points from its high. I was doing a lot of chart work this weekend. I don't know man, if that stock breaks $120 and gets to be almost a 3 percent yield, then I say pull the trigger without hesitation. Right now it's just a hold because that group is really under pressure."
NRG Energy: "It's unbelievable, this thing is like $12, $11. I've got to tell you I think it's worth more, but that balance sheet is not that good. I don't want to sell it down here, but I've got to tell you if it does go back up to $16 or $17, sell, sell, sell."