Breakingviews: Trump's $4.6 billion in free media

Published Fri, Sep 30 20163:23 PM EDTUpdated Fri, Sep 30 20164:28 PM EDT

Breakingviews

Jennifer Saba

Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump is rewriting the script for political TV advertising. So far, he has spent only $78 million on ads. U.S. broadcasters usually count on an election-year windfall, but spending is forecast to fall and digital upstarts like Snapchat are in the mix looking for a piece of the pie. The run-up to November's election has unfolded like no other. TV networks love Trump and his unpredictable personality and politically incorrect pronouncements. He has received an estimated $4.6 billion worth of free media, more than double what Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has garnered, according to research firm mediaQuant. More from Breakingviews : Deutsche Bank has credible shock absorbers In an irony for the industry, though, the free coverage means Trump and his supporters are spending much less on TV ads. Kantar Media revised its forecast for political advertising outlays down 15 percent to $2.8 billion for local broadcasters. Sinclair Broadcast, which owns local stations in the United States, last week reduced its estimates for third-quarter revenue for exactly this reason. Perhaps because she doesn't have to compete with Trump ads, Clinton and her backers have spent a relatively modest $325 million on TV ads this year, according to Kantar, $175 million less than President Barack Obama spent during his 2012 re-election campaign. That year, Republican Mitt Romney spent $550 million — seven times Trump's level to date. The prominent conservative Koch family decided to pull TV advertising in October to focus money more directly on persuading people to vote. Trump's résumé includes starring in the reality show "The Apprentice." Some argue that another candidate will struggle to attract as much free media attention. But the landscape is shifting as fewer people watch as much TV. Digital players like Facebook and Snapchat are courting political operatives in Washington to get a slice of the advertising action — and Kantar estimates they'll get $1 billion this year. Four years from now, Trump's cold shoulder for TV ads could be the new reality. For more independent commentary and analysis from Reuters Breakingviews, visit breakingviews.com

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is seen on television screens at the media room during the first presidential debate with U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, September 26, 2016.

Carlos Barria | Reuters